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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/15 11:39

   Hog Futures Rally Monday Morning 

   Strong triple-digit gains have flooded the lean hog complex. This is pushing 
nearby lean hog trade to gains near $2 per cwt at midday as buyers quickly and 
aggressively step back into the complex.

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

   Strong renewed buyer support has quickly swept through lean hog futures with 
prices holding gains from $1 to $2 per cwt through the morning. Cattle markets 
are much more subdued, although the firming support in live cattle futures 
could help to bring additional interest to the entire complex. Corn markets are 
higher in light trade. December corn futures are 3 cents higher. Stock markets 
are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 40 points lower while Nasdaq is down 
45 points.


   Buyer support has redeveloped in live cattle trade at midday following 
narrow losses seen during most of the morning. Prices are mostly higher with 
prices still holding a moderate range from 27 cents lower to 50 cents higher. 
December contracts have been able to develop the most aggressive buyer 
activity, helping to bring additional support to the complex. Despite strong 
pressure last week, prices still remain well within the wide sideways range 
seen through the past two months. Cash cattle activity appears to be done for 
the week following light to moderate trade in all areas Thursday. Cash cattle 
interest is quiet Monday following light to moderate trade that developed 
through the last half of the week last week. Both sides are unlikely to show 
much interest with show list distribution and inventory taking focus of the 
day. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.61 lower (select) and up $1.48 
per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 51 total loads reported (33 loads of 
choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground 


   Follow-through price pressure has been seen through most of the morning 
despite an early attempt to bring some stability back to the complex during the 
first few minutes of trade. Feeder cattle futures are focusing on the renewed 
buyer support in the grain complex that has pushed corn and soybean markets 
higher through morning activity. Losses through the complex have held in a 
moderate range from 70 cents to $1 per cwt, with very limited interest in 
market stability through the end of the session.  


   Sharp gains continue to hold across all lean hog futures with triple-digit 
gains seen in all remaining 2018 and all 2019 contracts. Spot month December 
contracts are leading the complex higher with a $1.97 per cwt rally. The sharp 
losses seen last week has left the entire complex oversold, with the focus on 
increased buyer support moving back into the complex through the entire 
session. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. 
The weighted average price is $1.03 lower at $60.37 per cwt with the range from 
$55.00 to $61.40 on 5,158 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the 
Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is 
$1.82 lower at $58.76 per cwt with the range from $55.00 to $61.25 on 1,780 
head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 118 loads selling on 
the morning report. Pork carcass values gained $1.42 per cwt at $81.46 per cwt. 
Lean hog index for 10/11 is at $68.99 down 0.29 with a projected two-day index 
of 68.75, down 0.24.

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


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