After a chilly lag in temperatures and heavy rain for some at the end of April, the North-Central United States is in the midst of a wide-open planting window where warm weather and little precipitation should have farmers out and about. However, these conditions are not all that great for plant growth, so if the pattern doesn't change, conditions could turn back toward building drought.

Although the Southern and Eastern U.S. have been getting deluged with rain this week, an upper-level ridge of high pressure has been somewhat consistent across the North-Central U.S., keeping much of the area dry with above-normal temperatures. For those in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and much of northern Missouri and Illinois, many days of highs in the 70s and 80s are forecast to continue into next week. It feels a lot like summer and that has producers getting into their fields rather easily with time to spare. These general conditions should last for about another week, at least through May 13, though folks in Illinois may have to watch that heavy-rain-producing upper-level low in the Southeast. As it leaves next week, it could bring some showers north of the Ohio River. But for other areas, it will take a change in the pattern to bring rainfall chances in.

It does appear that a change in the weather pattern is coming. An upper-level trough currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West next week and challenge the ridge for dominance across the Central U.S. in the middle of next week. That should mean at least one storm system moving through.

Models are uncertain on the details of this storm, but it should have some potential to bring pockets of showers and thunderstorms through the North-Central U.S. and could be followed by another for next weekend. If the showers can be widespread, it would cap a pretty good stretch of weather for most farmers.

Significant planting and other fieldwork could get done, then be followed by a nice rain to help seeds germinate and emerge in good condition.

However, if this upcoming change in the weather pattern disappoints, it could be a long stretch of dry weather at the start of the season that could be limiting for soil moisture that had just started to get to a good place.

Rainfall in April improved soil moisture and drought across much of these states, though Nebraska has been largely passed over by the active weather and drought has either been maintained or increased during the month. But overall, the region is in a good spot to start the season. However, if a dry first half of May is followed by a drier second half, the benefits may be wiped away rather quickly.

Models do not have a good handle on the systems coming through, leaving patches of wet weather intermixed with areas of near-complete dryness. The GEFS model prefers to bring increased precipitation across the north with the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin experiencing some degree of above-normal precipitation for the second half of the month. The European EPS, on the other hand, likes Iowa and the vicinity; this includes parts of eastern Nebraska, Missouri and Illinois on the better rainfall potential. Even so, both of these ensemble forecasts (or averages of a bunch of model runs) have a lot of disagreement within their members, pointing to widespread uncertainty.

In all likelihood, this means that some areas of the region will likely come into June in a good spot while others get missed and will be looking at potential drought. But we won't know which areas will be in which camp until the weather systems become better forecast, likely within the timeframe of a week. That makes monitoring the forecast more critical than usual this time of year.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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