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DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/08 10:52
Corn, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Monday; Soybeans Lower
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 2
to 3 cents lower; wheat futures are 3 to 9 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 2
to 3 cents lower; wheat futures are 3 to 9 cents higher. The U.S. stock market
is weaker at midday with the S&P 55 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15
points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is mixed with
crude up 1.20 and natural gas off .12. Livestock trade is widely lower with
cattle the downside leader. Precious metals are mixed with gold off 12.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with two-sided action as we
remain deeply oversold and fresh bullish news remains in short supply. Ethanol
margins should remain solid with corn pulling back more than unleaded to boost
blender margins further. The daily export wire saw 103,000 metric tons (mt) of
corn sold to Japan. Weekly export inspections were strong at 1.911 million
metric tons (mmt) with year-to-date pace at 127%. Basis continues to hold the
recent range for now. Weather looks to keep concerns limited with rains moving
to the center of the Corn Belt with cooler weather expected toward the end of
the week. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions with
emergence above average. On the July chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.57
is resistance with the fresh low at $4.12 1/2 as support, which we scored today.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower with oversold conditions building and
another set of fresh lows as well with little weather issue and fresh demand
still mostly unconfirmed. Meal is 3.50 to 4.50 lower and oil is 35 to 45 points
higher. South America will continue to move post-harvest bushels onto the world
market as harvest wraps up. Basis and crush margins look to hold the recent
range into June, but they are fading to the lower end of the range. The daily
export wire saw 264,000 mt of new-crop sold to unknown destinations. Weekly
export inspections were soft at 398,186 mr as we remain at 80%. Planting should
wrap up except for double-crop. Steady conditions and above average emergence
are expected on the weekly crop progress report. On the July contract, chart
resistance is the 20-day moving average at $11.88 with the fresh low at $11.11
1/2 as support.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 3 to 9 cents higher with KC leading as harvest moves
forward amid deeply oversold conditions and row-crop pressure lingering with a
positive finish needed to entice buyers. Harvest should continue to expand with
the west drying out again in the short term, while spring wheat development
should be aided by rains, but cooler temps may slow growth. Weekly crop
progress is expected to show flat conditions for winter wheat with heading and
harvest above average, with spring wheat conditions improved as emergence
remains above average. Matif wheat is lightly weaker with the euro firming.
Weekly export inspections were rangebound at 319,730 mt with the year-to-date
pace at 107%. On the KC July chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at
$6.72 with the fresh low at $6.15 1/2 as support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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